Overview of Available Stations

Available stations are shown on the map. Gauging stations are shown in blue color, meteorological stations are indicated in red color. Stations can be selected from the pull down menu or through clicking on the map. The 'View Data' Button displays timeseries graphs as well as corresponding norms and available data from the last two years.

Station information


Station Data

From the pull down menu below, select station for viewing and editing data. You have to submit the new data by clicking the corresponding Submit Data button below. The data will be stored remotely and remain available for later sessions.

Enter/Edit New Data

Plot

Information on Models

Summary information of models and their quality is provided for each station. The reported RMSE is from the ensemble model and is assessed on a test set that is unseen during training. The ensemble model is a simple 'linear blend' of the individual models trained. The performance of the individual models is shown in the corresponding tables (see also documentation on caretEnsemble for more information).
caretEnsemble Documentation
A delay coordinate embedding approach is utlizied. For all models, lagged decadal (10-day) data from the closest meteorological station is utilized together with the past lagged values from the corresponding discharge time series. A lag five has been deemed optimal for performance. Seasonality is accounted for by adding a decade identifier to the predictor list. For each station, model training is carried out with data upt to and including 31-12-1999. The test set data includes data from 1-1-2000 onwards.

Decadal Forecasts

521400: Yingluoxia

520800: Qilian

520400: Zhamashike

Monthly Forecasts

521400: Yingluoxia

520800: Qilian

520400: Zhamashike

Seasonal Forecasts - Stay tuned

521400: Yingluoxia

520800: Qilian

520400: Zhamashike

Forecast Information

Decadal, monthly and seasonal forecasts are computed for each decade and shown for all gauging stations in the corresponding tabs. The latest available data is fetched and forecasts are carried out while using the latest decade for which complete data is available. The forecast values are highlighted in orange color. Important note: Please make sure that the latest data (see Data page) is always available (discharge and precipitation and temperature from all stations) for a valid forecast (labelled [Valid]). Otherwise, forecast target decades are in the past and forecasted values are outdated (labelled [Outdated]).

Current Date and Decade

Decadal Forecasts

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Monthly Forecasts

                  
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Seasonal Forecasts - Stay Tuned

                  
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520800: Qilian

                  
520400: Zhamashike

                

              

            

          

        

      

      

        

          

            
Assessment of Forecast Quality

            Assessment of quality of forecasts based on past model test performance up and including 
                               the last known values. The test set includes
                               data from January 2000 until and including the last known data. the quality criteria are shown as red and blue
                               lines respectively where, for each decade, the red line is 0.674 * rmse(delta Q)/std(Q) in the case of the decadal
                               forecasts and 0.674 * rmse(Q)/std(Q) for monthly forecasts. The blue line, i.e. a less stringent quality criteria is
                               at 0.8 * rmse(delta Q)/std(Q) and 0.8 * rmse(Q)/std(Q) respectively. Forecast quality of all stations is shown.
          

          

            

              
              

                

                  
Assessment of Decadal Forecast Quality

                  
521400: Yingluoxia

                  

                  
520800: Qilian

                  

                  
520400: Zhamashike

                  

                

                

                  
Assessment of Monthly Forecast Quality

                  
521400: Yingluoxia

                  

                  
520800: Qilian

                  

                  
520400: Zhamashike

                  

                

                

                  
Assessment of Seasonal Forecast Quality - Stay tuned

                  
521400: Yingluoxia

                  
520800: Qilian

                  
520400: Zhamashike

                

              

            

          

        

      

      

        

          

            
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